Changing Perceptions and Changing Behavior in Customer Relationships

We formulate a theoretical model in which we postulate that if customers' behavior is perceived as not optimal, customers will adjust this behavior based on their current satisfaction and payment equity. Furthermore, customers will also include new experiences. In our empirical study we particularly investigate customer referrals and the amount of services purchased. Our results show positive effects of current satisfaction and payment equity on referrals, while also changes in satisfaction and payment equity affect customer referrals. With respect to the amount of services purchased, our estimation results reveal a positive significant effect of only changes in satisfaction.     

Reflections on discriminant validity: Reexamining the Bove et al. (2009) findings

Bove, Pervan, Beatty and Shiu (2009) develop and test a latent variable model of the role of service workers in encouraging helpful behaviors by customers towards the service business (OCBs). Farrell (2010) questions these findings due to an incorrect application of the Fornell and Larcker (1981) discriminant validity test. The authors respond to Farrell's criticism by discussing the options available for assessing discriminant validity, the current use of these options in top journals, the underlying assumptions of these assessments, and the appropriateness of the alternative assessments under different types of situations. Finally, the authors address the specific concerns raised in Farrell (2010) in regard to Bove et al. (2009).     

Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.     

Role of Forgetting in Memory-Based Choice Decisions: A Structural Model

We propose a structural model to investigate the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand choice decisions in frequently purchased products. Forgetting results in consumers imperfectly recalling their prior brand evaluations when making a purchase decision in the category. We conceptualize the imperfect recall by positing that consumers recall their prior evaluations with noise. Based on prior research in the behavioral area, we characterize the extent of forgetting as an increasing and concave function of time. Our framework generates analytical results on the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand evaluations and their consequent purchase behavior. We calibrate our model using scanner panel data for liquid detergents. Furthermore, we obtain insights into the consumers' extent of forgetting in the category, extent of learning, predicted price elasticities and implications on state dependence and habit persistence. Our results underscore the importance of modeling consumers' ability to recall only imperfectly.     

基于ISM的可达矩阵的简便算法

解释结构模型化技术是最基本、最具特色的系统结构模型化技术,求可达矩阵又是建立递阶结构模型(ISM)中最重要的一步,本文基于ISM有向图,根据布尔代数运算规则,阐述一种更简便的由邻接矩阵求可达矩阵的新算法。本文与Warshall算法作对比,体现出该新算法的简便之处。该算法以后也可以实现计算机化。     

低地板有轨电车可靠性分配及应用

可靠性分配时保证低地板有轨电车整车可靠性水平的重要任务之一。比例组合法多用于平台化设计的设备或系统可靠性分配工作,首先明确故障定义,进行功能分解,建立模型,最后将指标分配至各子系统,使得设计人员和供应商明确可靠性设计要求。     

Position limit for the CSI 300 stock index futures market

The aim of this study was to find the optimal position limit for the Chinese stock index (CSI) 300 futures market. A low position limit helps to prevent price manipulations in the spot market, and thus keeps the magnitude of instantaneous price changes within the tolerance range of policymakers. However, setting a position limit that is too low may also have negative effects on market quality. We propose an artificial limit order market with heterogeneous interacting agents to examine the impact of different levels of position limits on market quality, measured as liquidity, return volatility, efficiency of information dissemination, and trading welfare. The simulation model is based on realistic trading mechanisms, investor structure, and order submission behavior observed in the CSI 300 futures market.Our results show that on the basis of the liquidity status in September 2010, raising the position limit from 100 to 300 could significantly improve market quality and at the same time keep the maximum absolute price change per 5 s below the 2% tolerance level. However, the improvement becomes only marginal if the position limit is further increased beyond 300. Therefore, we believe that raising the position limit to a moderate level can enhance the functionality of the CSI 300 futures market, which should benefit the development of the Chinese financial system.     

Long‐run Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Singapore's Tourism and the Economy

This study employs recent Singaporean tourism survey data, the updated Singaporean input–output tables and a computable general equilibrium model to gauge the long‐run effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and selected policy responses. The simulation results suggest that the global financial crisis has had mild negative long‐run effects on the overall development of Singapore's economy, and that the GST deduction policy ought to offset this negative effect.     

Flexible estimation of price response functions using retail scanner data

Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects.     

基于IIEM的企业建模方法研究

在集成企业建模方法(IEM)的基础上,以一种基于可复用标准构件的改进的IEM建模方法(IIEM)来构建模型,该方法采用面向对象的建模技术和统一建模语言UML,通过构建可复用标准构件及扩充对象类和企业模型视图来实现企业模型,使企业模型具备了更好的适应性和主动性。最后通过一个实例说明了IIEM方法的可行性。